A good marketer always wants to know the competition. For aspiring authors, how much competition is there? The numbers are closely held and hard to pin down. However, I decided to take a stab at it.

In 2004, one source gives the number of books published in the U.S. as 190,000. For 2006, another source (citing BEA statistics) gives the number of books published in the U.S. as 172,000. Sounds like stiff competition so far, right? In fact, out of the 172,000 books, 93% sell fewer than 1,000 copies. A successful book should sell at least 5,000 copies to earn out a modest advance.

More recently another source indicates that in 2007, about 62,000 fiction books were published. This seems to suggest that more than half the earlier totals were mostly nonfiction with some other categories.

The numbers suggest that the number of books published by traditional publishers probably hasn’t changed much or has even declined in the past 6 years.

Self-published books count for a large number of total books published. They haven’t been included in the above numbers, but offer some competition. Lulu claims it publishes 4,000 books a week, which comes to an astounding 208,000 books a year! That’s just for one self-publisher. The vast majority of self-published books only sell a hundred or two hundred copies to the author’s friends and family. For fiction, self-publishing is useful if all you want to do is see your name in print. Most people shouldn’t consider it a money making venture since self-publishing costs anywhere from $5,000 to $25,000 and up.

For more on self-publishing challenges, see http://reviews.cnet.com/self-publishing/

For new authors, these are sobering facts. I have seen estimates that between 700 and 1,000 people in the U.S. make their living as novelists. Some will write more than one novel per year. Let’s assume that 1,500 novels each year come from full-time novelists. That leaves 60,500 novels to be written by those not making their living as novelists. This is good news in that it means there’s some chance to break into the field. But not so good in terms of earnings or a long term career.

So where to go from here? I highly recommend any aspiring novelist join a writer’s association to learn about the industry. Also, think deeply on your writing goals.

After completing “The Woman in White” by Wilkie Collins, I spent some time thinking about the techniques Collins used to create this early thriller/suspense story. CAUTION: May contain spoilers.

First, it was helpful that the novel was serialized. This likely pushed Collins to provide a cliffhanger ending for each installation. When read as a complete novel, the reader still enjoys the roller coaster ride where the hero and heroines are pushed into a tighter and tighter box by one disaster after another. With each set back, the villains gain until the hero and heroines have lost nearly everything and absolute success seems assured for the villains.

While the pace is slower than is currently in vogue and some circumstances could not occur with today’s technology, the plot twits and turns still hold the reader enthralled, pushing on and on to see how the “good guys” could possibly get out of their dilemma. Collins gives the hero and heroines no rest, driving them in one case to the brink of insanity. His characters are well drawn and realistic. His portrayal of society in the 1800′s and of the physical environment seems authentic and sufficient for the reader to feel settled in that time period.

One unusual aspect is Collin’s use of numerous narrators. This technique allows him to give the readers knowledge of the unfolding plot even when none of the heroines nor the hero are present. The alternative would be an omniscient narrator. I believe the unusual choice gives the story more immediacy. In Collin’s hands, these narrator switches are not distracting.

Collins is also adept at understanding the psychology of his characters. This is particularly evident in the “villains” self-justification for their misdeeds.

The only potential flaws are a few situations that one could argue are a bit too coincidental. However, these never stretch the boundaries to the point where the situation would be judged absurd. They are more than balanced out by the novels relentless destruction of the hero and heroines, which progresses from the beginning to nearly the end of the novel.